Breakeven win rate calculator
A win rate on its own tells you nothing. Whether a strategy makes money depends on the win rate and the payoff ratio together - and a 60% win rate with an average win half the average loss loses money on every trade. This tool shows the breakeven line, where your numbers sit relative to it, and whether your sample is even big enough to know.
The breakeven line
Why your win rate is not your edge
The two numbers only mean something together. A 40% win rate with 2:1 winners is profitable; a 60% win rate with 1:2 winners is not. Brokers, gurus, and leaderboards quote win rate alone because it's the number that sells - the payoff ratio is where the money actually is.
Costs move the bar. Commissions and slippage raise the required win rate on every trade. If your P&L figures are gross, everything you believe about your edge is optimistic.
Your measured win rate is an estimate, not a fact. Over 100 trades, a true 55% coin shows anywhere from 45% to 65%. If the whiskers on the chart straddle the line, your track record cannot yet tell you whether you have an edge - more trades is the only honest answer.
Also in tools: Prop firm evaluation simulator - how often would a strategy like this pass a funded-account evaluation, and what would it really cost?